Then there is the good cop, bad cop routine that seems to be playing out with the Celtics staff.

Danny Ainge reportedly shopped Rondo to sweeten Ray Allen’s expiring contract over the summer. Ainge then stated that Rondo is not a “max-contract player” on WEEI in June.  In September when Ainge says let's talk, we come to find out that Rondo’s agent and Ainge still haven’t sat down (see . Boston Herald link courtesy of Celticsblog.com).

This was recently tempered by Doc’s recent statement on WEEI that “I think Rondo will be a lifetime Celtic. I really do.”   Guess who’s the good cop and who’s the bad cop in this routine.

We are bearing down on the October 31^st deadline for Rondo’s extension, and boys and girls, we’re not talking about hair here and were not talking about  . . . never mind, we’re talking about securing an 8 figure salary.

RONDO'S WORTH

There has been a lot of speculation about what exactly Rondo is worth.  His value is certainly diluted as by design, he must defer to the Big Three for scoring, and the starting point guard of a championship team only gets parital credit when playing with Hall of Famers like Garnett, Pierce and Allen.  Last year, he anchored the team again and was honored with being named to NBA’s 2^nd team All-Defense.  Then with Kevin Garnett breaking down, and the team seemingly running on tired legs last spring, we saw that Rondo could put up astronomical numbers during the playoff series, unquestionably leading the Celtics in terms of stats produced during the playoffs.

Tom Halzack summed up Rondo’s contributions well at forum.connpost.com/celticscentral:

“He finished the regular season as the Celtics' 4th leading scorer with 11.9 points, 6th in the NBA in assists at 8.2, 2nd in field goal percentage (50.5) by point guards, 4th in all guards, 5th in the NBA in steals (1.9), 3rd in the NBA in rebounds (5.2) by point guards. Only Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and perhaps Deron Williams has truly outshined him on the court. None are the defender that Rondo is.”

Just as Rondo’s innate talent is apparent, his offensive liabilities crop up.  Rondo can shoot well on occasion, but he’s marred by the occasional air ball and a deplorable free throw that seem to be locked in at a sub-65% career rate from the line.

But even Shaq and Howard deal with problems from the line, so why focus on the blemishes when it comes to Rondo?  Doc thinks it’s because Rondo’s too smart for his own good.  Rondo has an excellent basketball intellect, especially for his young age of 23, but unfortunately that comes across as individualism and arrogance to his teammates.  As Doc put it within an interview on the classic Return to the Rafters (you know – the movie co-starring our own Celtics Stuff Live’s Justin Poulin):

“He [Rondo] thinks he knows all the time and you have to convince him sometimes that maybe you don't t know and maybe there's still a little bit to learn.”

Mind you that statement is dated 1 year ago, but obviously Rondo became weary of the “tough-love” administered by the elders on the team.  That awkward players meeting last April was a culmination of Rondo's frustration.

In the end, there isn’t a player on the Celtics that doesn’t want Rondo to be that lifetime Celtics.  They can all see through that chip on his shoulder.  Rondo knows he’s the point guard and is the de facto floor general, and generals command their team.  The naysayers like to point to the below average shooting, but we’ve seen improvement each year (except for the free throws), and he spent the whole friggin’ summer shooting with Mark Price for Cripes Sake!  Rondo means business when it comes to being the best.

2006 DRAFT CLASS UPDATE

It’s no secret that Rondo’s draft class is struggling mightily to negotiate the extensions that they are eligible for.  Portland has been busy as they have signed both of their 2006 1^st round draftees to extensions.  This summer, Brandon Roy received a maximum contract that amounts to a $81M/5 yr deal.  That was just recently followed by the Blazers paying LaMarcus Aldridge $70M/5 yr, $5M of which is reportedly tied to incentives.  Bargnani signed a $50M/5 yr contract with the Toronto Raptors.  But that’s it.  Rudy Gay and Tyrus Thomas are also waiting patiently this week along with Rondo.

As it turns out, Rondo’s draft class is pretty weak when you can count Celtics Shelden Williams and ex-Celtics Patrick O’Bryant as lottery picks, during the same draft where Rondo slid to Boston via Phoenix all the way to pick No. 21.  One of Danny Ainge’s better moments indeed. . . .

COMPS FOR RONDO

Although Rondo isn't necessarily asking for the maximum (see Celticsblog.com), the following maximum contract structure is still the upper end of Rondo’s salary spectrum:

• 2010-11:  $13,520,500
• 2011-12:  $14,940,153
• 2012-13:  $16,359,805
• 2013-14:  $17,779,458
• 2014-15:  $19,199,110

The maximum contract is tied to the salary cap, so if the salary cap goes down, so will the maximum contract salary.  If only I could have such worries. . .

If Rondo obtains a maximum salary, he’d be in rare company indeed.  There are only a precious few that have walked from a rookie contract into a maximum veteran contract, as we’ve only seen Brandon Roy get it this year.  In 2008, fellow point guards Chris Paul and Deron William got 4-year max extensions starting at $13.5 this year.  A potential comp for Rondo from 2008 is Danny Granger who took a $60M/5 year deal, or better yet Andrew Bynum who took $60M/4 year.  That’s $12M for 5 years and $15M for 4 years, respectively.

What the Celtics are hoping to do is to roll back to 2007 when some more manageable salaries were to be had in Devin Harris’s $50M/5 year deal and Jameer Nelson’s $40.5M/5 year deal.  Those are the comps that the Celtics are undoubtedly pointing to.  Additionally, veterans Steve Nash was just extended for several years at an $11M annual salary, and Andre Miller the same for $7M per year.

So let’s say the best case scenario for the Celtics is that they hand Rondo a $40M/5 year deal, but that’s not going to happen, and here’s why.

WHAT RONDO DESERVES

Dean Oliver came up with the Approximate Value (AV) which is an overall rating that sums up the value of a player, similar to Hollinger’s PER, NBA’s Efficiency, the TENDEX value etc.  None of them of perfect, so that's why I went with the simplicity of the AV stat.  It’s discussed at nbastuffer.com.  There is also a term called "Trade Value" which is based on age and the AV, with the optimal age set to be 27 years old.

Playing around with the AV for the 2008-09 season stats, Rondo ranks quite well with regard to Trade Value.  The point and combo guards have the following rankings:

Rondo ranks 6^th in the NBA in Trade Value.  More importantly, one can see that Rondo also ranks 5^th in AV.  Wade and Paul are in their own stratosphere, but Rondo hangs with the likes of Mr. Maxers - Brand Roy and Deron Williams.  Rondo is only 23 and he’s easily surpassed the 26-year Devin Harris and his $50M/5 year contract level with regard to performance.  Note that Jameer Nelson is 27 and can be considered to be nearing his prime with regard to trade value (which was 24.36 despite his all-star year), and so his Trade Value doesnn't make top-ranked list.

Like it or not, if the Celtics can sign Rondo for something similar to what Portland paid Aldridge ($70M/5 year) instead of the max contract that Roy got, they will be lucky.  Cedric Maxwell’s talk of the $55M/5 year for Rondo is pie in the sky for the Celtics.

THE CELTICS PERSPECTIVE

Due to the luxury tax set at $71.15M last year, and the Celtics had to pay handsomely for having a team salary of approximately $79.5M last year. From  NBA.com, the teams that had to pay the luxury tax from the 2008-09 season are as follows:

• Knicks              $23,736,207
• Mavericks        $23,611,661
• Cavaliers          $13,707,010
• Celtics              $8,294,664
• Lakers                $7,185,631
• Trail Blazers      $5,899,356
• Suns                  $4,918,136

The grand total "dollar for dollar" tax paid by the above teams this past year was $87,352,665. The salary cap for the 2009-10 is $57.7M, with the minimum team salary at $43.275M. The tax level will be $69.92M, a few $100k less than last year.

Going into next year, they only have $54M in salary including Paul Pierce’s $21.5M player option.  Adding Rondo’s salary, even at the max will be affordable, with the wild card being what to do with Ray Allen (that’s another story).  Obviously the Celtics would like to minimize the tax payment they have made, but it is not apparent to me that paying Rondo near the max will take them into unchartered salary waters with regard to the luxury tax.

I feel that if the Celtics don’t extend Rondo now, they most definitely will be paying the max to retain his services.  It has been noted that there will be numerous teams with lots of cap space to sign the likes of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, etc.  Since it is likely most of these folks will re-sign with their teams (they usually do), the smartest thing for the Celtics to do is go the "LaMarcus Aldridge approach" if they can get away with it, and do as the MDA has been asking for their benefit, lock him up!