The CSL research staff has assembled the following graphic of our own to illustrate the sober nature of the stretch of games between December 25^th and the all-star break. The Celtics lost a whopping 13 times in just 21 games. The good and bad news is that they were in presumably in control at one point in 10 of those 13 losses with a lead generally of 10 points or more.

Ten collapses in games after substantial leads had been secured is a lot to suffer in approximately six weeks. Most definitely, following the Celtics has not been for the faint of heart for their fans. Enter the blasphemous “Trade Allen” or “Do Something” demands by their fans as the trade line approached (I recall a Celticsblog.com poll indicating about 2/3 voting to trade Ray with over a 1,000 votes cast). I was a proponent of “stay the course” with the Big Three, and fortunately that is what the Celtics chose to do. Of course I’m a half century old and appreciate what a healthy veteran can accomplish, but I just don’t see urgency.

Besides retaining their key personnel (which Eddie House was not), finishing the season and getting a decent seed would seem paramount. I see this as a “fork in the road” moment for the team.

A SHORT HISTORY OF THE “2^nd SEASON”

Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have chosen to take a long view of the season, as we all know that the playoffs are said to be a different season. But in order for that to happen, the team has to make the right choice. For me, that choice needs to be made now, although as we will see, it is not unprecedented to make the regular season essentially irrelevant. However, only one team that has won the championship did so with less than a 3rd seed.

Sure the Celtics can still make this a story book season capped off by a Banner 18 by playing aggressive basketball and staying healthy for the rest of February, March and April. In doing so, they will have improved their home-court advantage through at least the conference semi-finals. In fact, if they only lose a few more games the remainder of this season, then making up the 5 and 6 games that they’re behind the Cavaliers in the loss column wouldn’t be insurmountable.

Conversely, throw out the story book ending to the regular season and realize that the Celtics can take the title by simply surviving the regular season but preserving their health. It is not the way you want things to go, because you know more often than not that the team with the best regular season record wins the whole enchilada (let's say a better than 50% chance to make it to the Finals).

But if we consider that teams can and have made a considerable turn around after the all-star break to take the NBA championship, then the Celtics world and their less than advertised 32-18 record at all-star break take on a different light.

2006-2007 Champion San Antonio Spurs

The 2006-07 Spurs were a solid 35-18 at the all-star break. What was disturbing to their fan base was that, similar to the Celtics, they hit a bump in the road mid-season when they went 13-12 between Dec 22, 2006 and Feb 11, 2007. Their mid-season slump included 5 losses at home - where the Spurs are typically unbeatable. The uncharacteristic performance at home is also reminiscent of this year’s Celtics who already have 9 home losses this season.

The Spurs came back strong post all-star break and went 23-6. After the all-star break, they simply dominated teams during an 11-game win streak which included a 4-game road trip. This is what the Celtics must do as well - play for the entire 48 minutes and make a statement like they did against the Trailblazers on Friday.

The Spurs ended up finishing 2nd in their division with a 58-24 record, and turned a 3rd seed in the Western Conference playoffs into their 3^rd NBA title in 5 years.

2005-06 Champion Miami Heat

The Miami Heat showed the necessary push to secure the No. 2 spot by dominating during a 15-1 stretch between mid-February through early March. The Heat finished with a 52-30 record, and that included ending the season with an unimpressive 4-7 stretch. The Heat’s 33-20 record at the all-star break and 19-10 record after the break suggested some consistency in their season, but Pat Riley was in the end trying to manage Shaquille O’Neal’s and Alonzo Mourning’s minutes and keep Dwayne Wade healthy.

Certainly the Heat were an example of a team that played two different seasons as they took out the 1^st Pistons in the conference finals, who had a dominating 64-18 regular season record, and then went on to win their first NBA title by defeating a very good Mavericks team, thanks in part to many trips to the foul line by Mr. Wade.

2003-2004 Champion Detroit Pistons

The 2003-04 Detroit Pistons were 33-21 and stumbled into the break with a 6 game losing streak. This team very much needed to turn things around post-break, which they did thanks to the addition of Rasheed Wallace. As you may recall, Danny Ainge helped rescue Wallace from the then lowly Hawks by facilitating a 3-way trade that sent Sheed to the Pistons. After Sheed arrived, the Pistons when 20-5 to end the season.

The Pistons ended up with a 54-28 record and the 3^rd seed in the East. Their road was not easy as they were decided underdogs taking the 2^nd seed Nets in the conference semi-finals, and then the 1^st seed Pacers in the conference finals and then upsetting the Lakers (with Payton and Malone in tow) in the Finals.

1994-1995 Champion Houston Rockets

The 1994-95 Houston Rockets backed into the playoffs and are the best-case example of winning the championship with a mediocre regular season, ending up being the 6^th seed in the West. This is by far the lowest seed to have won the championship, as no 4^th or 5^th seeded team has won.

The Rockets, however, were the defending champions and knew what it took to win. They had a 29-17 record at the all-star break, but the Rockets decided they need to make a move and exchanged Clyde Drexler for Otis Thorpe after the break. Interestingly enough, they only finished the regular season with a 17-18 record with Drexler, and had 5 game losing streak in late February and finished the season with a 7-11 stretch.

As if to wait until the last possible moment, the Rockets were down 2-1 in the 1st round of the playoffs and down 3-1 in the conference semi-finals, but managed to win both series with Drexler being a factor finally. The Rockets then took the Spurs in 6 and swept the Shaq and Penny lead Magic in the Finals.

Some similarities between the 1994-95 Rocket’s team and this year’s Celtics team is that they had the Championship pedigree and they had a gritty “player” coach in Rudy Tomjanovich.

There are numerous other examples of teams sneaking away with the championship in the 70s despite a mediocre regular season, but the parity in the league was much different prior to the addition of expansion teams and merger with the ABA.

This history review would not be complete without acknowledging the 1968-69 Boston Celtics who were only 48-34 during the regular season, and finished 4th in the 7-team Eastern Division. They Celtics of the 60s had been there and done that and somehow were able to figure things out and ride on the shoulders of player-coach Bill Russell in the post-season and defeat Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain and company for their 11th  championship in just 13 years. This last feat of the Russell-lead Celtics certainly brings inspiration to this year's sometimes struggling Celtics.

ABOUT THAT FORK IN THE ROAD

So there is the easy road and then there’s the hard road to the Finals. Our Celtics are certainly familiar with doing things the hard way when they had 7 game series against the Hawks and Cavaliers in 2007-08 and then again with the Bulls in 2008-09.

The easy way is to turn things around now and secure the 2^nd or 3^rd seed.  They could fall to the 4^th seed by letting the Cavs, Magic and Hawks all finish with better records, and then they are looking at odds of winning a Championship that are on par with getting the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft lottery, i.e., slim to none. But there is no shame in grabbing the Division title and securing a 2^nd or 3^rd seed if they can’t catch the Cavaliers.  If that happens, they really could have essentially the same odds as having the No. 1 seed.  As the table above shows, if you take out the 80’s Lakers, 80’s Celtics, 80’s Pistons and 90’s Bulls teams, all of which were dominating teams during the regular season, then a 2^nd or 3^rd seed team almost have as much of a chance of winning the Finals as the 1^st seed.  This is assuming that the Finals constitutes the "3rd season" of the year and is a whole new ball game.

Teams that have dominated the NBA in an earlier season and won the title are more likely to sneak in and win the championship with a sub-par regular season. This why the Celtics must remain in the conversation regardless of their record, if in fact they are healthy.

Three games into the post all-star break, we can say that we’re seeing a renewed focus and the return of the defensive tenacity that has been a hallmark of these Garnett-lead Celtics. Ray Allen is regaining his shooting form, Marquis Daniels is getting acclimated, and Tony Allen is providing plenty of defensive energy and a slashing presence.  Most importantly, we are seeing Kevin Garnett regain his form.

Nate Robinson will be coming around on Tuesday, and we shall see that his +5.8 differential in PER compares well to the Celtics new all-star Rajon Rondo.  In theory, the addition of Kyptonate should give the Celtics the best PG rotation in the NBA, and make the "shooting guard playing point guard" experiment (e.g., Eddie House, Tony Allen, Marquis Daniels) a thing of the past.

I do believe there’s a fork in the road and that the Celtics are taking the correct path. Do you?